For businessmen in Nuevo León and the country, 2019 was characterized by a complex and challenging environment. complex and challenging environment. To begin with, this year's economic activity presents an advance of 0% in Gross Domestic Product. The uncertainty that arose throughout the year the year caused business confidence in all sectors to fall and, consequently, investment. and, consequently, investment.

On the one hand, insecurity continued to increase throughout the country; this 2019 could close with more than 29,000 intentional homicides, the highest figure in 10 years. with more than 29,000 intentional homicides, the highest figure in the last 10 years. In addition, the In addition, theft from transportation companies continues; we estimate that the year could close with more than 11 thousand robberies of this type. Similarly, legislative activity has been hyperactive in the first year of the federal congress, with over of the federal congress, with more than 1,650 additional initiatives compared to the same period in previous years, an increase of 6,000. previous years, an increase of 62% in both Chambers. Nevertheless, these initiatives dealt with issues of relevance to companies, such as tax, transportation, labor, among others, which have generated greater uncertainty; which have generated greater uncertainty, as well as an additional investment of time for national businessmen to time of the national business community to evaluate and socialize the potential effects of each one of them. of each one of them.

Reflection of this situation is that the business sector reduced by more than 90 billion pesos in physical investment during 2019 by more than 90 billion pesos. This drop is worrisome when considering that 85% of total investment in the country comes from the private sector. However, not only the private sector private sector contracted its investment, but also the public sector did, as it stopped investing 76 billion pesos this year. 76 billion pesos this year. As a result, more than 166 billion pesos stopped flowing into the country's economy. into the country's economy.

Lower investment leads to lower industrial activity in the country. Manufacturing production would close the year with an increase of 1.6%, driven mainly by the external sector, where exports would grow by 3% during 2019. external sector where exports would grow by 3% during this 2019. Likewise, employment is affected with the creation of only 150 thousand jobs in the sector in the country during 2019. during 2019.

For 2020, Nuevo Leon's industrial sector expects a recovery in national macroeconomic activity. in the national macroeconomic activity. We share the opinion of specialists of a 1.2% growth of 1.2% for the following year, which reactivates the economy, but is not enough. enough. Our country faces great challenges and opportunities that must be overcome in the following year if we are to grow at a higher rate than expected. the following year if we seek to grow at a rate of at least 4%, which will help us to reduce social backwardness. social backwardness.

Among the challenges, I can mention the lag faced by the southern states. For example, in the northeastern part of the country, only 1.7% of the population faces extreme poverty, while in the southwestern states, this percentage is 26.6%. in the southwestern states, this percentage is 26.6%. In addition, the average schooling In addition, average schooling in these same northern states is close to 10 years, while in the south it is below 8 years. is below 8 years.

Another challenge is the rule of law, where Mexico's justice system is inefficient, unreliable and leaves a great deal of crime unpunished. unreliable and leaves a large number of crimes unpunished. Currently, an oral commercial trial takes around 205 calendar days to resolve. On the other hand, insecurity is costing us 1.54% of GDP.

However, we also have opportunities for this 2020. One of these is in the energy sector, where the energy sector, where SMEs pay 89% more for electricity than in the United States. the United States. If the necessary investments can be made in this sector, it could increase competitiveness for the entire business sector. increase competitiveness for the entire business sector.

Similarly, the domestic content of Mexican exports is only 26.5%, representing an important supply opportunity for the industrial sector. We are We are close to the ratification of the T-MEC, which opens the door to a greater export dynamic. dynamic.

For the following year, it is worth highlighting the National Infrastructure Plan, which was achieved through agreements between the federal government and the private sector. agreements between the federal government and the private sector. With 147 strategic projects investment projects, with a total investment outflow of 859 billion pesos, the recovery of business confidence and its subsequent effect on business confidence and its subsequent effect on investment, which is essential if we are to recover our business confidence. is essential if national growth is to resume its course.

Under this scenario, we believe that domestic manufacturing production can recover and reach 1.8% by the end of 2020. recover and reach 1.8% by the end of 2020. Domestic employment would also generate 460,000 new jobs by 2020, of which 180,000 would be in the manufacturing sector. 460 thousand new jobs in 2020, of which 180 thousand would be in the manufacturing sector. manufacturing sector. On the other hand, the gradual loosening of monetary policy during the year leads us to believe the year leads us to believe that this behavior will continue in view of the low growth of the economy and the stability of the economy. growth of the economy and price stability.

Therefore, at CAINTRA Nuevo León we hope that the collaboration between the government and the business sector will generate positive effects on the environment. the business sector will generate positive effects on the environment. At the same time, we call on authorities to carry out their plans to promote favorable conditions for investment, which will improve production and create more and better jobs. investment, which will improve production and create more and better jobs. And finally, we reaffirm our commitment to work to meet the needs of the business community, to follow up on the policies community, to follow up on public policies and to cooperate with the authorities to achieve these objectives. authorities to achieve these objectives.

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CAINTRA NUEVO LEÓN