Since January 2013, CAINTRA has conducted a monthly survey of economic expectations for manufacturing, covering the need for timely economic expectations survey for manufacturing, meeting the need for timely indicators of the economic situation in Nuevo León. economic situation in Nuevo León. In these more than 8 years, the survey has become a thermometer of the state's industrial activity. thermometer of the state's industrial activity, faithfully showing the business situation in the face of different economic and political events. different economic and political events.

With this history, the April 2020 Economic Expectations Survey results are the lowest on record as a result of the suspension of non-core activities. lowest on record as a result of the suspension of non-core activities due to the COVID - 19 pandemic. due to the COVID - 19 pandemic. The impact begins in late 2019 due to the disruption of production lines in Asia, also caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. production lines in Asia, also caused by the virus.

For example, production and new orders showed their largest contraction in history in April, at 26.4 and 24.7 points, respectively. April, at 26.4 and 24.7 points, respectively. Previously, the lowest figure for previously stood at 40.8 points at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, a period in which Mexico's political environment was in uncertainty. political environment in Mexico was in uncertainty due to the implementation of the 2013 tax reform. 2013.

On the other hand, the current economic crisis and political changes have dampened business confidence and, consequently, investment. confidence and, consequently, investment. In the case of Nuevo Leon, only 16% of businessmen indicated that they had made an April investment in machinery and equipment. of businessmen indicated that they had made an investment in machinery and equipment in April. The previous lowest percentage The lowest percentage occurred in January 2017, when Donald Trump was sworn in as president of the United States. United States.

In terms of the number of workers, the indicator has remained in the contraction zone for 17 consecutive months, showing that job creation has slowed in the state. consecutive months, showing that job creation has slowed in the state. The indicator has never shown this behavior for so many months, and only shows seasonal drops in December and with the seasonally in December and with the aforementioned events.

In relation to foreign trade, the lowest result presented in the index for exports had been no less than 41 points in 2013, as a result of the uncertainty had been no less than 41 points in 2013, as a result of the uncertainty surrounding the discussion of the U.S. debt ceiling in the United States, as well as the economic slowdown in the European Union. economic slowdown in the European Union. However, the pandemic has now disrupted global supply chains, so global supply chains, so that export and import indices reached record lows in April. record lows in April 2020, with 39.02 and 36.87 points respectively.

Even in times of great uncertainty, such as the threats to eliminate NAFTA or the tax reform that increased the tax obligations for companies reform, which considerably increased tax obligations for companies, has not shown a similar performance in the indicators. indicators have performed similarly.

The magnitude of the recession requires extraordinary support and stimuli for the entire national productive sector, especially industry, given its multiplier effect on the economy. productive sector, especially industry because of its multiplier effect on the economy. It is It is urgent to accelerate the economic reactivation under the necessary sanitary measures, as well as to generate stimuli to protect sources of employment. stimuli to protect sources of employment.

CAINTRA NUEVO LEÓN

ANNEX: History of CAINTRA's Economic Expectations Survey main indexes (January 2013 - April 2020) 2013 - April 2020)