The Mexican economy is paused

September 2, 2019

The economic analysis carried out by the Chamber month by month, taking into account the official figures of various organizations together with the surveys and comments of our Partners regarding the performance of their companies, allows us to conclude that the economic activity of the country faces a moment of Pause and uncertainty.

There are several factors that cause the economic pause that Mexico faces, but those that stand out are of an international nature, that keep uncertainty not only in the country, but also in the global economic activity. In this area, the trade war between the United States and China highlights, which does not seem to have a short term solution.

A mixture of variables that show a negative result and others that remain positive or begin to show favorable performance characterizes the current economic situation. For example, in the negative part the contraction of the industrial activity can be mentioned, where construction was reduced by 6.77% in June and manufacturing also shows a decrease close to 1% for the same period. To this it is added that the confidence of consumers and producers maintain a downward trend.

On the other hand, positive indicators persist in the economy, which could mean a rebound for the following months. The reactivation of employment generation during the month of June, the constant growth of exports and the downward trend of inflation can be mentioned.

This diversity of figures shows that the economic outlook is complicated and the Chamber shares the vision of various organizations of a lower growth for this year. Specifically, an increase of 0.9% of the national GDP is expected for 2019 and for the state of Nuevo León the expectation is a 2% advance of the local economy.

Given this situation, CAINTRA has remained close to the Federal Government for the generation of programs that promote productivity, economic growth and generate certainty for investment and job creation. The latest announcements of the energy sector are a good sign for economic stability and allow the activity to rebound.

However, we ask the Government of Mexico to exercise public spending focused on productive investment where micro, small and medium enterprises have the right conditions to grow and generate jobs. In addition, these principles must continue in the 2020 economic package, which is about to be released.

CAINTRA will continue to collaborate with the Government of Mexico to end the pause that the economy faces.